Arkansas has yet to land a commitment from a four-star recruit in the Class of 2025, according to the 247Sports ranking. The Razorbacks currently have commitments from 14 three-star recruits. Historically, how has Arkansas done at converting three-star recruits in to quality contributors, All-SEC performers or NFL Draft picks? Odds are that only one of them will have an NFL career. Let’s take a closer look…
The following list runs from 2011 to 2022 and only includes high school recruits. The reason we’ll include the 2021 and 2022 classes is because players in those classes have basically either contributed or have moved along. Here’s a closer look at the national statistics for three-star recruits.
Nationally, three-star recruits have modest chance for greatness.
The Arkansas Razorbacks have 14 commitments in the Class of 2024, and while there are some promising-looking recruits, past statistics say the odds are highly stacked against any of them being future NFL players. The odds are even worse for offensive players.
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT: If you’re a three-star, your chances of getting drafted are really low. There have been a lot of great three-stars that have come through Arkansas — a lot — but I can also name a ton, and probably easily name more three-stars, that just didn’t pan out.
If you’re a three-star recruit, your chance of getting drafted by the NFL is 6%. This is based on the 16/17 Class into the 2020 NFL Draft. There were 1,831 three-stars, 110 of them were drafted. Arkansas’ success rate with three-star recruits is actually slightly higher. Here’s an in-depth breakdown of three-star recruit success rates at Arkansas since 2011.
The four-stars, there were 311. Seventy-three of them were drafted. This is based on 247Sports. That’s 23.5%. The five-stars, there were 30, and 19 were drafted. That’s 62.3%. So, pretty significant there.
It also breaks down by first-round picks. You have a 34.3% chance of being a first-round draft pick if you’re a five-star. That goes down to 3.8% if you’re a four-star. It goes to 0.4%, eight out of 1,831, if you’re a three-star. And if you are a two-star, it is 0.005% chance to be a first round draft pick out of 1,949. Pretty interesting data, and that is from Preston Guy. You can follow him at @PGuy77.
This is where Arkansas is. They’re getting negative-recruited against. ‘The staff isn’t going to be there next year.’ That’s what they’re getting told. That’s where things are. END OF TRANSCRIPT
- Three-star recruits have a low likelihood of being drafted into the NFL, with only 6% from the 2016-17 class being selected in the 2020 NFL Draft.
- Comparatively, four-star recruits had a 23.5% draft rate, and five-star recruits had a much higher rate at 62.3%.
- The chances of becoming a first-round NFL draft pick were highest for five-star recruits at 34.3%, followed by four-stars at 3.8% and then three-stars at 0.005%.
- Negative recruiting against Arkansas following a 4-8 season in Year 4 under Sam Pittman has created problems for Arkansas in landing high-profile recruits.
- Despite notable three-star success stories, the majority do not achieve NFL draft status, contrasting with higher-rated recruits.
- The only way for Arkansas to overcome is to show recruits on the field. Winning early games against programs like Oklahoma State, Auburn and Texas A&M would be big for program morale.
- Recent history shows a coaching change would likely torpedo the current recruiting class with a short turnaround due to the early December signing date.
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